About the 5-Year Rate Changes Graph
Purpose
This graph provides a quick look at which causes of death have rising rates and which have falling rates over the most recent 5 years of data. The Historical Trends graph can be used to look at the trends in rates. The trends are available for All Races, American-Indians/Alaskan Natives, Asian Pacific Islanders, Blacks, Hispanic/Latinos, Whites, White Hispanic/Latinos, and White Non-Hispanic/Latinos.
Statistics require careful interpretation. See the information page about interpret rankings for insight into interpreting statistics particularly if you are a new user of statistics.
Note that a modest percent change in a more common cause of death will have a greater impact on the overall burden than a larger percent change in a more rare cause of death.
The average annual percent change can be applied to either the rate or to the count in order to provide a rough estimate for planning purposes. For example, if the annual percent change is minus 1% and there are 500 deaths per year then it can be estimated that there will be 5 fewer deaths next year assuming the trend continues. Like compound interest, more accurate estimates require more sophisticated methods and work is in process to provide projections.
Data Sources:
- Mortality data are provided by the National Vital Statistics System
at the National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. - Population counts for denominators are based on Census populations as modified by NCI.
- 5-year Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC)s are calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program and are based on annual percent changes (APCs). Where not enough years of data are available, Expected Annual Percent Change (EAPC) is calculated using SEER*Stat.
